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Hurricane Earl (2016) (Sassmaster15)
Hurricane Earl was the worst tropical cyclone to strike the U.S. state of Texas since Hurricane Ike eight years earlier. The fifth named storm, second hurricane, and first major hurricane of the annual hurricane season, Earl developed out of an initially poorly-developed tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles. The wave drifted into the Caribbean, where record-warm sea-surface temperatures and low wind shear contributed to a very favorable environment conducive for tropical cyclogenesis. As the wave slowly consolidated, the tropical cyclone soon underwent rapid organization and was assigned the name Earl. ''Earl continued to strengthen at a modest pace as it tracked northwest towards the Yucatán Peninsula. Earl brushed Playa del Carmen with winds of 65 miles per hour, causing moderate damage. After briefly weakening, Earl entered the Gulf of Mexico. As the storm entered the Gulf of Mexico, it gradually took on a westward track just north of the Yucatán. Earl's forward speed gradually slowed enough for it to undergo rapid intensification. By August 4, Earl had intensified to the second hurricane of the season. Additional intensification ensued thereafter, as Earl became a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 100 miles per hour while it rapidly expanded in size. A pinhole eye appeared in the mid-levels of circulation soon after, having begun to bear down on the Texas coastline. By August 6, Earl had become the first major hurricane (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) of the season, attaining peak winds of 115 miles per hour. Shortly thereafter, Hurricane Earl peaked in intensity, with a minimum central pressure of 961 millibars. Only slightly weaker, Earl made landfall ten miles south of Houston, Texas hours later. This made Earl the first major hurricane to landfall in the United States since Hurricane Wilma of 2005. Earl was also the first tropical cyclone to make landfall in Texas since Tropical Storm Don of 2011, the first hurricane landfall in the state since Hurricane Ike of 2008, and the first major hurricane landfall in the state since Hurricane Rita of 2005. Earl was also the first hurricane landfall in the United States since Hurricane Arthur of 2014. Throughout southeastern Texas, Earl caused widespread destruction that surpassed that of Hurricane Ike, becoming the third-costliest Atlantic hurricane in United States history. Soon after landfall, Earl rapidly weakened due to unfavorable conditions over land. The storm was designated a remnant low thirty-six hours after landfall, with the remnant circulation dissipating uneventfully over the southwestern United States soon after. Due to its devastating effects in Texas, the name ''Earl was later retired by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2017. Meteorological History For several days prior to formation, the GFS (Global Forecasting System) model remained insistent that a tropical wave, dubbed Invest 97L by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), would develop into a tropical cyclone by the end of July. Over the next several days, 97L remained fairly weak and poorly organized due to moderate wind shear. Initially, the NHC noted low confidence in their Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) for the system, giving it only a low ''chance of developent within five days. By July 29, 97L began erratically drifting westward, passing over the Lesser Antilles with only minor impacts. Shortly thereafter, the system emerged in the Caribbean while continuing to drift on a course westward. By the following day, the NHC acknowledged conditions had become much more conducive for tropical development, upping their chances to a ''medium 50 percent chance of cyclogenesis within five days. Wind shear subsided further, and 97L slowly consolidated to the season's fifth tropical depression by July 31. Upon this development, the system received the recognition Tropical Depression Five and advisories were initiated. Intensification ensued further due to a warm, moist environment and a strong convectively-coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW), as the tropical cyclone was assigned the name Earl due to Air Force reconnaissance aircraft reporting maximum sustained winds of 35 knots (40 mph) within the convective core of the system; the required threshold for tropical storm status. Upon being named on August 2, Earl became the fifth named storm of the season. Tropical Storm Earl continued on a course due west throughout much of the Caribbean, this movement attributed to a building ridge of high pressure to the storm's north. Convection continued to fire within Earl, with an ASCAT pass revealing the presence of two 50 knot vectors in the northeastern quadrant of the developing eyewall, supporting an intensity change to 60 miles per hour. The NHC noted in their 00:00 UTC advisory for Earl that minimal hurricane intensity was possible due to favorable environmental conditions and a substantially building central dense overcast (CDO). Overnight, Earl acquired a new peak intensity of 55 knots (65 miles per hour) with a minimum central pressure of 998 millibars as a building trough to the storm's southwest induced a slight change in direction to the west-northwest. Nearing the eastern edge of Cozumel and the Yucatán Peninsula, the NHC issued Tropical Storm Warnings for areas encompassing Playa del Carmen and Cancún, as a direct hit was to be expected within twelve hours. Despite its proximity to land, Earl retained intensity as it bore down upon the eastern Yucatán Peninsula with maximum sustained winds of 55 knots. Later that day, the western quadrant of Earl's eyewall struck Playa del Carmen at maximum intensity. Terrain interaction temporarily disrupted circulation, resulting in slight weakening, though the cyclone quickly recovered as it emerged in the Gulf of Mexico early August 4. Trade winds soon steered Earl to the northwest, though an anticyclone over the U.S. state of Texas significantly slowed Earl's pace, allowing rapid intensification to take place. Within hours, Tropical Storm Earl attained winds of 65 knots, the minimum requirement for hurricane status (the second of the season). Record-warm SSTs provided the necessary energy for rapid intensification to occur, and Earl was upgraded to a Category 2 hurricane hours later. Earl's intensity made it the first hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico since Hurricane Ingrid of 2013, and the strongest to develop in the basin since Isaac of 2012. Hurricane Watches were issued for southeastern Texas and northern Mexico as Earl continued to approach the state, exhibiting no signs of weakening amidst a very favorable environment. At that point, the NHC noted the possibility of major hurricane intensity prior to landfall on August 6. Over the next two days, Earl underwent no significant changes in organization as it bore down on the Texas coastline, having stalled out in intensity. Only hours prior to landfall August 6, a convective blowup occurred in Earl's core, resulting in the appearance of a pinhole eye in the center of circulation, along with a significant intensity upgrade to 100 knots (115 mph), otherwise known as major hurricane intensity (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale), the first of the season. A strong upper-level anticyclone developed atop Earl, sustaining intensity as it made landfall south of Houston, Texas. Hurricane Earl made landfall only as a slightly weaker storm with a maximum intensity of 115 mph, 967 millibars. Upon landfall, Hurricane Earl broke the record nine-year lull in which no major hurricanes made landfall in the United States, the last storm doing so was Hurricane Wilma of 2005. In addition, Earl was the first major hurricane landfall in the state since Hurricane Rita of 2005. Earl was also the state's first hurricane landfall since 2008's Hurricane Ike. Explosive weakening ensued as Earl traveled inland, with unfavorable conditions due to land interaction resulting in the hurricane weakening to a tropical storm only 24 hours after landfall. After brushing San Antonio, a ridge to the southwest caused Earl to accelerate to the northeast. An additional twelve hours later, advisories were discontinued as Earl was designated a remnant low whilst over New Mexico on August 7. The remnant circulation associated with Earl later dissipated the following day over the Rocky Mountains of the United States. Preparations Impact Throughout its track, Hurricane Earl caused massive devastation across the Yucatán and much of Texas. Following its landfall as a major hurricane in Texas, states of emergency were declared for sixteen counties and municipalities throughout the southeastern portion of the state. Damage exceeded that of Hurricane Ike eight years earlier, as Earl was later classified as the worst hurricane in Texas history and ranked as the third-costliest in Atlantic history. Lesser Antilles The precursor disturbance to Earl, dubbed'' Invest 97L'', passed over the northern end of the Lesser Antilles with only minor impacts. Throughout Antigua & Barbuda, moderate rainfall amounts were recorded, peaking at 2.3 inches in Barbuda. St. Knitts & Nevis recorded rainfall of even lesser amounts, with a meteorological station in St. Knitts reporting rainfall less than one inch from 97L. The center of the system passed directly over Monserrat, which, in turn, reported the most prolific effects. Throughout the island, rainfall totals peaked at nearly seven inches. Some street flooding and ponding was observed in the city of Brades due to the heavy rainfall, rendering some roads as temporarily impassible. Gusty winds in excess of 30 miles per hour were reported at a station in Plymouth, though overall minimal effects were reported. One indirect fatality exacted in Richmond; a driver later died in a traffic accident after his vehicle collided with a bus due to slick roads. Overall, minimal impacts were reported from Earl's precursor disturbance in the Lesser Antilles. Yucatán Peninsula Tropical Storm Earl made landfall near Playa del Carmen on August 3, with maximum sustained winds of approximately 65 miles per hour. First striking the island of Cozumel, heavy rains and strong winds lashed the island for an extended period of time. San Miguel, the largest city on the island, experienced maximum 1-minute sustained winds of 60 miles per hour, with hurricane-force gusts of 76 miles per hour. Meanwhile, San Benito encountered 54 mph sustained winds from Earl, with an unofficial gust of 69 miles per hour at a school just outside the city. Across the island, rainfall totaled 7.4 inches. Flash flooding was reported throughout many townships across Cozumel, with the worst occurring near Santa Rita. Flooding inundated hundreds of homes in the city, displacing nearly 321 families. In Santa Rita, a man drowned in floodwaters eight feet deep while attempting to retrieve his car. In San Miguel, floodwaters rendered nearly thirty roads and streets as impassible, resulting in a mandatory order of all citizens to remain in their homes. Throughout the city, over sixty homes were deemed uninhabitable due to the destruction. Across Cozumel, strong winds caused nearly 2,000 customers to lose electrical power, with some outages persisting for nearly a week after Earl departed the area. Tree damage was severe and widespread, with most smaller and weak trees uprooted to high winds. A woman in Buena Vista was killed after a large tree branch fell on her house due to high winds. Across Cozumel, Tropical Storm Earl was responsible for two fatalities and caused nearly $1.5 billion in damages, making it one of the worst tropical cyclones to strike the island in Atlantic history. Texas Aftermath & Records Category:Sassmaster15 Category:Cyclones Category:Category 3 hurricanes Category:Past Storms